المحتجون يقررون المشاركة في الانتخابات ومنافسة الأحزاب الراسخة

المنصة- مصطفى حبيب

الكثير من الاشياء تجعل الانتخابات العراقية المقبلة الأهم وأيضاً الأخطر في البلاد بعد العام 2003، فتنامي السخط الشعبي إلى أقصى درجاته، مع انحدار الأداء السياسي للطبقة الحاكمة، يجعل البلاد على مفترق طرق.

وتأتي أهمية الانتخابات المقبلة في أنها ستكون أول انتخابات تجري بعد احتجاجات شعبية هي الأوسع في البلاد بعد العام 2003، وأدت إلى مقتل المئات وإصابة الآلاف، لكنها في نهاية الأمر أجبرت حكومة عادل عبد المهدي على الاستقالة، ليشكّل بعده مصطفى الكاظمي حكومة جديدة أعلنت أن أول أهدافها تنظيم انتخابات مبكرة.

ومنذ أيام ينشغل العراقيون في قضية الانتخابات، ومدى جدواها، ولكن الأمر الجديد هذه المرة، أن المحتجين على النظام السياسي القائم المتورط بالفساد والعاجز عاى إيفاء أبسط المتطلبات المعيشية والخدمية قرروا المشاركة في الانتخابات المقبلة لينافسوا الأحزاب الراسخة في السلطة.

ولكن السؤال الكبير، ما الفرص التي تمتلكها أحزاب صغيرة شبابية لا تمتلك الأموال في مواجهة أحزاب كبيرة متجذرة داخل الدولة وتمتلك ثروات مالية هائلة واجنحة مسلحة تثير الرعب في طول البلاد وعرضها؟

تهديدات حقيقية

السبت الماضي، أعلن القيادي في احتجاجات الناصرية علاء الركابي تشكيل حزب سياسي باسم “امتداد” في إشارة إلى أن مشروع الحزب هو امتداد للتظاهرات والاحتجاجات. 

والمفارقة أن الركابي أعلن عن حزبه من مدينة المثنى المجاورة لمدينته الناصرية، خوفاً من الجماعات المسلحة التي تهدد حياته وحياة المئات من المحتجين الذين ما زالوا يواجهون تهديدات حقيقية، وهذا أوضح إشارة إلى صعوبة القول أن الانتخابات المقبلة ستكون نزيهة.

إلى جانب الركابي، هناك أكثر من عشر أحزاب صغيرة أخرى تشكّلت من المتظاهرين، وفقاً لمصدر في مفوضية الانتخابات. وأبلغ المصدر الذي طلب عدم الإشارة إلى اسمه أن “أكثر من 200 حزب سجلوا أسماءهم للمشاركة في الانتخابات المقبلة، بينها وجوه جديدة شبابية، وأخرى أيضاً أسماء جديدة ولكنها تابعة في الأصل إلى أحزاب كبيرة”.

يقول مرتضى الخيكاني أحد محتجي الناصرية لـ “المنصة”، “بعد أن قدمنا تضحيات كبيرة وقتل وأصيب منا المئات، يبدو أن طريق الثورة الذي كنا نسعى إليه لتغيير الأوضاع غير ممكن بسبب قوة الأحزاب الماسكة في الدولة وفصائلها المسلحة، والآن ليس أمامنا إلا المنافسة عبر الانتخابات رغم الفرص الضئيلة”.

ويعوّل الخيكاني على أن تكون الانتخابات المقبلة نزيهة، ويقول “إذا لم يجر تزوير في الانتخابات، فالنتائج معروفة منذ الآن، الشعب العراقي يمقت الطبقة السياسية ولن تحصل أقوى الأحزاب إلا على مقاعد محدودة، وستفوز الأحزاب الجديدة التي تمثل المتظاهرين بلا شك، ولكن من يضمن عدم التزوير؟”.

بطاقات بايومترية

أوصت مفوضية الانتخابات العراقية الأحد الماضي بتأجيل الانتخابات المبكرة التي كان من المقرر عقدها في حزيران (يونيو) 2021 الى منتصف تشرين الأول (أكتوبر) من العام نفسه، قائلة إن فترة الأشهر الأربع من أجل ضمان نزاهة الانتخابات ومنع التزوير وإفساح المجال أمام المرشحين للمشاركة في الانتخابات.

ولكن المشكلة في العراق ليست في إجراء الانتخابات، بل في ضمان عدم تزويرها، إذ تُجمع الأوساط السياسية والشعبية على أنها ستخضع لتزوير كبير يلعب دورا في النتائج النهائية، وغالباً ما تكون الأحزاب الكبيرة وتلك التي تمتلك فصائل مسلحة هي مصدر التزوير.

مفوضية الانتخابات قالت إن الاقتراع سيكون عبر بطاقة بايومترية خاصة، يصعب تزويرها، وأطلقت منذ أيام حملة واسعة لدعوة العراقيين للحصول عليها، فيما تسعى الحكومة إلى إشراك بعثة الأمم المتحدة في مراقبة أوسع وأدق للانتخابات، حتى أن الحكومة أرسلت طلباً إلى مجلس الأمن الدولي لاتخاذ ما يلزم من إجراءات لضمان نزاهة الانتخابات.

كما أجرى رئيس الجمهورية برهم صالح في الأسبوع الماضي ثلاثة اجتماعات مشتركة ضمّت رئيس الوزراء ورئيس البرلمان وأعضاء مفوضية الانتخابات المبعوثة الأممية في العراق، ركزت على ضمان اتخاذ إجراءات الحد من التزوير والتلاعب، واعتماد البطاقة البايومترية حصرا في الانتخابات المقبلة.

قانون انتخابات جديد

رغم صعوبة الإقرار في ان تكون الانتخابات نزيهة، ولكنها تبدو فرصة سانحة لتغيير مسار البلاد نحو آفاق إيجابية والتخلص من فساد الطبقة السياسية، إذ إنها المرة الأولى التي تستعد أحزاب جديدة تمثل الشارع العراقي لخوض الانتخابات، ولكن على هذه الأحزاب تنظيم صفوفها وإقناع الناخبين العراقيين ببرامجها قبل كل شيء.

كما أن قانون الانتخابات الجديد سيكون في صالح المتظاهرين، إذ إنها المرة الأولى التي ستجري فيها الانتخابات وفق نظام الدوائر المتعدد داخل كل محافظة، بعد أن كانت المحافظة كلها دائرة انتخابية واحدة. 

وهذا يعني أن المنافسة ستكون داخل المناطق الصغيرة، وبلا شك إان الناخب سيميل الى انتخاب المرشحين من أبناء المنطقة الذين يعرفهم جيداً، بدلاً من القيادات السياسية التي كان أغلبها خارج البلاد وليس لديهم تمثيل حقيقي داخل المناطق”.

وإذا نجحت الأحزاب الممثلة عن التظاهرات في إقناع الناخبين العراقيين في ضرورة المشاركة في الانتخابات واختيارهم بدلا من الأحزاب الراسخة التقليدية، فان نتائج الانتخابات ستكون واعدة. 

ولكن أيضاًَ علينا ان نأخذ بالحسبان أن الكثير من العراقيين وصلوا الى مرحلة اليأس من الانتخابات وما زال الكثير منهم يفكر في المقاطعة كما حصل في 2018.

سيناريوهات خطيرة

وإذا كانت الانتخابات المقبلة مهمة وحاسمة، ولكنها أيضاً خطيرة، إذ إن الأحزاب الماسكة في السلطة على مدى العقدين الماضيين تغلغلت في مفاصل الدولة، وتمتلك ثروات هائلة وفصائل مسلحة تحمي مصالحها، وليس من الوارد أن تتنازل بسهولة عن هذه المكاسب إلى خصومها من الأحزاب الجديدة وخصوصاً التي تشكلت من المتظاهرين.

يقول أحد المتظاهرين من بغداد الذي انخرط في حزب جديد، وطلب عدم الإشارة الى اسمه، “منذ أسابيع أسسنا حزبنا وتم تسجيله لدى مفوضية الانتخابات، ولكننا نخشى تنظيم حفل لإعلان أهدافنا إلى الناخبين بسبب تهديدات نتعرض لها، نخشى الكشف عن أسماء مرشحينا إلى الانتخابات خشية اختطافهم أو حتى قتلهم”.

يعيش العراق في أسوأ حالاته من انتشار وقوة الفصائل المسلحة الشيعية التي أثبتت في غير مناسبة أنها اقوى من الدولة، وهذه الفصائل تمتلك أحزاب تسعى للمحافظة على مكاسبها، ورغم محاولات الحكومة السيطرة على هذه الفصائل إلا أن جميع المحاولات باءت بالفشل.

ومثلاً عندما اعتقلت قوات الامن العراقية على مدى الشهرين الماضيين عناصر من هذه الفصائل لتورطهم في قصف السفارة الأميركية في المنطقة الخضراء، سرعان ما هددت الفصائل باستخدام القوة، واستعرضت عناصرها في الشوارع، لتضطر الحكومة إلى إطلاق سراحهم.

وفي حال أن الأحزاب الراسخة وخصوصاً تلك التي تمتلك فصائل مسلحة خسرت في الانتخابات، فهل ستعترف بالهزيمة، أم ستبدأ بالتهديد واتهام الانتخابات بأنها مزورة؟ 

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