شبح 2014 يحوم حول العراقيين من جديد

المنصة – مصطفى حبيب

سلسلة هجمات للمتطرفين، وازمة اقتصادية حرجة، وصراع على رئاسة الحكومة العراقية، انها ليست مراجعة لاحداث العراق في 2014، انها ازمات تكرر نفسها من جديد في 2020، لماذا لا يستفيد العراق من اخطائه؟

في مقر قيادة العمليات المشتركة في المنطقة الخضراء تتزايد بشكل لافت اوراق الملف الذي يتم فيه تدوين واحصاء الهجمات المسلحة منذ مطلع نيسان الماضي، وفي غرفة العمليات العسكرية المجاورة يتناقص التنسيق بين قوات الامن العراقية و”التحالف الدولي” ضد داعش، وعلى بعد بضع كيلومترات، بات مكتب الحكومة معطلا بلا رئيس وزراء، بينما تتراكم على الرفوف ملفات خسائر النفط العراقي، وضحايا فيروس كورونا، فالعراق على حافة الانهيار من جديد.

عند ضواحي محافظة صلاح الدين المرتبطة مع محافظة ديالى، يستذكر الضابط في شرطة تكريت سامر الجبوري اجواء عام 2014 بتهكم “حقا التاريخ يعيد نفسه، ما يجري الان في البلاد يشبه تماما ما جرى في 2014، لا ينقصها سوى ان يعلن خليفة معتوه دولة اسلامية كما فعل ابو بكر البغدادي قبل ست سنوات، ولكن لن نسمح بذلك”.

ويضيف الجبوري “كان الشهر الماضي شاقا، تعرضنا لهجمات وكمائن عديدة من قبل الارهابيين، اصبحت الهجمات الان شبه يومية، يخرجون من عمق الصحراء والقرى النائية ليلا حيث لا نستطيع الدخول اليها بعد غروب الشمس، ويختفون في الصباح عندما تقتحم قوات الامن هذه القرى بحثا عن ارهابيين.

مصدر امني رفيع المستوى قال لـ “المنصة” بانه منذ مطلع نيسان (ابريل) وحتى 4 ايار (مايو) الحالي، تعرضت البلدات العراقية الى خمسين هجوما مسلحا شنه مقاتلو داعش المبعثرين هنا وهناك، وهم يسعون الى تنظيم صفوفه.

تزامن ذلك مع خبر دخول زعيم داعش الجديد ابو ابراهيم القرشي الى العراق ليؤشر مدى سوء الاوضاع الامنية في البلاد التي جعلت من القرشي يترك سوريا ويقرر دخول العراق.

في يوم 21 من الشهر الماضي اصدرت الخارجية الاميركية بيانا وجهته الى العراقيين يتضمن مكافاة مالية قيمتها خمسة ملايين دولار لمن يدلي بمعلومات عن القرشي الذي اكدت قوات الامن العراقية دخوله البلاد مؤخرا.

تشير خريطة الهجمات والكمائن التي شنها المتطرفون في الشهر الماضي الى ان المدن التي احتلها داعش عام 2014 كانت لها الحصة الاكبر من الهجمات، التي تمتد عبر شريط مترابط يبدا من غرب مدينة ديالى مرورا بشمال صلاح الدين والى الاعلى في كركوك ونينوى ومن الاسفل في الانبار، إذ قتل واصيب في تلك الهجمات العشرات من قوات الامن العراقية.

كان اعنفها واشدها تأثيرا على العراقيين الهجوم الذي قتل فيه عشرة عناصر من مقاتلي “الحشد الشعبي” واصابة اخرين، في قرية مكيشيفة في صلاح الدين السبت الماضي، وهو الهجوم الأكثر جرأة الذي يشنه المتطرفون منذ هزيمتهم عام 2017.

منتصف الشهر الماضي اعلنت قوات الامن العراقية في بيان لها انها قتلت (135) ارهابيا وعثرت على (500) قذيفة مدفع، ودمرت اكثر من (600) موقع للتفخيخ و (300) مقر للمتطرفين، في مدة (130) يوما منذ بداية العام الجاري وحتى منتصف نيسان (ابريل) الماضي، وتبدو هذه الحصيلة من الهجمات الارهابية وكأن البلاد في حرب، إذ اعترف وزير الدفاع نجاح الشمري في بيان صريح له بتزايدها.

في هذه الاثناء وبينما كانت الهجمات تتوالى على البلدات العراقية، كان “التحالف الدولي” ضد داعش الذي تقوده الولايات المتحدة، مشغولا بحماية نفسه من هجمات الفصائل الشيعية الموالية لأيران.

انسحبت قوات التحالف الدولي من العديد من القواعد الصغيرة المنتشرة في المدن التي تعرضت الى هجمات ارهابية، وتجمعت في قواعد محدودة ونشرت منظومة الباتريوت المضادة للصواريخ، وهي الان تنتظر حزيران (يونيو) المقبل لإجراء مفاوضات ستكون معقدة مع الحكومة العراقية حول مصير بقائهم في البلاد.

هجمات الفصائل الشيعية على القواعد العسكرية للتحالف الدولي وانتشار فيروس كورونا، تسبب في تقليص التحالف لعملية التعاون مع قوات الامن العراقية التي هي بأمس الحاجة لخبرات ومعلومات التحالف الاستخباراتية حول المتطرفين، والاهم الغارات الجوية الفاعلة، والتي تفتقر اليها قوات الامن العراقية بشكل كبير.

ليس الوضع الامني فقط الخبر السيئ في العراق لسوء الحظ. سياسيا، البلاد تقودها حكومة بلا صلاحيات بعد استقالة رئيس الوزراء عادل عبد المهدي تحت ضغط المحتجين، وتحولت حكومته الى تصريف اعمال تنتظر منذ خمسة اشهر رئيس وزراء جديد.

حتى اليوم فشل مرشحان محمد توفيق علاوي وعدنان الزرفي، اما الثالث مصطفى الكاظمي فهو ينتظر فرصته بالذهاب الى البرلمان على امل الحصول على تصويت النواب المنقسمين فيما بينهم بشكل كبير على تشكيلته الوزارية.

تزداد اوضاع البلد تعقيدا مع انهيار اسعار النفط العالمية، اذ اصبح العراق احد اكبر ضحاياه، واعلنت وزارة النفط ان الايرادات المالية التي حصلت عليها مقابل بيع النفط في نيسان (ابريل) لم تتجاوز مليار و(423) مليون دولار بعد بيع برميل النفط الواحد بسعر (14) دولار ، وفي اذار (مارس) بلغت الايرادات المالية نحو ثلاثة مليارات دولار.

في الشهرين ذاتهما من العام الماضي 2019 كانت الايرادات تصل الى اكثر من ستة مليارات دولار شهريا، ما يعني ان العراق خسر 70% من اموال الموازنة التي يذهب الجزء الاكبر منها كمرتبات لأكثر من خمسة ملايين موظف ومتقاعد.

تدرس الحكومة الان خيارات صعبة وقاسية لأنها لن تستطيع دفع المرتبات كاملة في الاسابيع المقبلة، منها قطع نصف الرواتب وتأجيل دفعها، ولكن هذه الخيارات قد تدفع الى غضب الشارع.

واضطرت الحكومة منتصف الشهر الماضي لتخفيف حظر التجوال الذي طبق بسبب فيروس كورونا، لان معظم العراقيين من غير الموظفين والمتقاعدين بدأوا بالتذمر، لذا قررت الحكومة منح كل منهم مبلغ (25) دولار فقط ما اثار سخط الناس، وقررت لاحقا تقليل ساعات الحظر الى (12) ساعة فقط بعدما كان 24 ساعة.

تتراكم الازمات السياسية والاقتصادية والامنية مجتمعة وتضع العراق من جديد على حافة الانهيار، في بلاد لم تعرف الاستقرار، وتجعل امال السلام والامان والنمو تتكسر في دوامة الصراع المستمرة

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