ماذا يريد العراق والولايات المتحدة وايران من مفاوضات حزيران ؟

04/06/2020
574 4 دقائق

المنصة – مصطفى حبيب

يدخل العراق في حزيران (يونيو) الجاري مفاوضات مهمة مع الولايات المتحدة حول وجود القوات الاميركية، وهذه المفاوضات ستحدد مسار البلاد امنيا سياسيا.

بعد شهر من تشكيلها، تنتظر الحكومة الجديدة مفاوضات صعبة ومعقدة مع الولايات المتحدة، في ظروف تختلف تماما عن تلك التي كانت عام 2008 عندما دخل العراق في مفاوضات مماثلة مع الولايات المتحدة لانسحاب القوات الاميركية من البلاد الذي تم عام 2011.

تصاعد التوتر بين واشنطن وطهران في العراق في الاشهر الماضية ووصل الى مواجهة مسلحة مباشرة، بعد قتل الولايات المتحدة لقائد فيلق القدس قاسم سليماني في قلب بغداد، ورد طهران بقصف القاعدة العسكرية الأميركية والاهم في العراق في قاعدة عين الاسد في الانبار، ويبدو ان المفاوضات المقبلة هي في الواقع مفاوضات اميركية – ايرانية في احد جوانبها المهمة.

وبسبب التوتر المتصاعد، صوّت النواب الشيعة في البرلمان في كانون الثاني (يناير) بغياب النواب الكرد والسنة، على سحب القوات الاجنبية من البلاد، وهذه القوات تعمل ضمن “التحالف الدولي” الذي شكلته وتقوده الولايات المتحدة لمساعدة العراق في محاربة داعش.

ولكل طرف من الدول الثلاثة اهداف من المفاوضات المقبلة وهي اهداف متقاطعة، يسعى العراق لمنع تكرار تحول ارضه الى ساحة حرب بين ايران والولايات المتحدة، وضمان عدم عودة تهديدات داعش مجددا الى البلاد، واستمرار الدعم الدولي في الجانب السياسي والامني والاقتصادي.

بالنسبة لإيران سيكون انسحاب القوات الاميركية بشكل كامل من البلاد اولوية في المفاوضات المقبلة، اما بالنسبة للولايات المتحدة، سيكون الهدف تحجيم النفوذ الايراني في العراق.

ستنطلق المفاوضات بينما يواجه العراق سلسلة تحديات صعبة واوضاع غير مستقرة، فيروس كورونا ينتشر على نطاق واسع على عكس تراجعه في اغلب دول العالم، خزينة الدولة مفلسة واسعار النفط منخفضة، والاف المحتجين الناقمين على الطبقة السياسية ما زالوا في الشارع، وتنظيم داعش يكثف هجماته على المدن العراقية.

هذه الظروف تبدو مغايرة تماما عما كان عليه الوضع عام 2008 عندما جرت مفاوضات بين العراق والولايات المتحدة لسحب قواتها من البلاد، في ذلك العام خرج العراق منتصرا على تنظيم القاعدة، وشن حملة على الميليشيات الشيعية، وكانت واردات النفط كبيرة جدا جلبت الانتعاش الاقتصادي، والخلافات السياسية كانت محدودة، فالحكومة في ذلك الوقت كانت اقوى من الحكومة الحالية.

وفي ظل حكومة جديدة ضعيفة فرضتها اوضاع غير مستقرة من الازمات السياسية، فان العراق سيكون طرفا ضعيفا في المفاوضات، وامامها تحدي كبير في انتزاع تسوية تضمن استقراره بين العدوين اللدودين.

في ضوء ما سبق على الحكومة العراقية تقديم ضمانات الى الولايات المتحدة والغرب لاتخاذ اجراءات للحد من تغلغل النفوذ الايراني وتدخله في شؤونه الداخلية، اذ ان استمرار هذا التدخل يقوّض قدرة العراقيين على مواجهة التحديات، ويجعل الغرب غير متحمس لدعم العراق، في المقابل على العراق اقناع ايران انه لن يرمي نفسه في حضن الولايات المتحدة والغرب والا فان ايران وحلفائها العراقيين سيواصلون تقويض الجهود القومية العراقية لتحقيق السيادة، وحرية القرارات.

ويتوجب على الحكومة العراقية أيضا ان تضمن حصول البلاد على الدعم الدولي لمنع عودة التنظيمات المتطرفة، وضمانات في الحصول على الدعم الدولي في حال تعرض العراق الى هجمات مجموعات متطرفة، ويكون هذا الدعم عبر التسليح الجيد، والتدريب.

كما ان الحكومة مطالبة بتوفير الظروف المناسبة لإجراء الانتخابات في موعدها، والتفاوض مع المتظاهرين الذي يطالبون بانتخابات مبكرة وفق قانون انتخابات جديد، على ان تكون الانتخابات خالية من التدخلات والتزوير لإقناع المجتمع الدولي ان النظام السياسي ما زال محافظا على اسسه الديموقراطية.

وتسعى حكومة العراق أيضا لضمان الحصول على الدعم الاقتصادي لمواجهة الازمة الاقتصادية الكبيرة التي تواجهها، فهي لم تعد قادرة على دفع مرتبات نحو ستة ملايين موظف ومتقاعد، في حين ان مئات الالاف من الشباب بلا وظائف.

ولتحقيق هذه الاهداف ينبغي على الحكومة العراقية اتخاذ قرارات جريئة في مواجهة النفوذ الايراني، وتبدأ اولا عبر اصلاح هيئة “الحشد الشعبي” التي تسيطر على قراراتها ايران، وكذلك كبح جماح الميليشيات الاخرى التي تعلن رسميا ولائها لإيران وتتصرف خارج نطاق القانون.

ومن اجل الحصول على الدعم الدولي لمنع عودة الارهابيين، يتعيّن على الحكومة الابقاء على برامج تدريب قوات الامن العراقية عبر التحالف الدولي او عبر حلف الناتو. ولتطمين المجتمع الدولي من سير العملية السياسية في الطريق الصحيح ينبغي دعم سيادة القانون وعمل مفوضية الانتخابات عبر اشراك الامم المتحدة في العمل، وضمان تدفق المنظمات الدولية الحكومية وغير الحكومية الى البلاد، وتوفير الدعم اللوجستي لها.

اقتصاديا، على الحكومة العراقية ان تقدم خطة عمل واقعية تقنع المجتمع الدولي بجديتها في تحقيق اصلاحات اقتصادية تشمل القطاع العام عبر ايقاف التعيينات العشوائية الزائدة، ودعم القطاع الخاص وتشريع قوانين جديدة للاستثمار الاجنبي.

اما ايران سيكون لديها هدف اساسي من المفاوضات، وهو ضمان انسحاب القوات الاميركية من العراق بشكل كامل، الهدف اعلنه صراحة المرشد الايراني علي خامنئي الاسبوع الماضي.

وحتى تحقق ايران هذا الهدف ينبغي عليها ايقاف ابراز نفوذها داخل العراق، كما ان المجموعات المسلحة الموالية لها ينبغي ان تتوقف عن افعالها الخارجة عن القانون التي تظهر الحكومة العراقية على انها ضعيفة، كما ان على ايران ان تمنع حلفائها من الفصائل المسلحة من قصف القواعد العسكرية الاميركية والمنطقة الخضراء حيث مقر السفارة الاميركية.

بالنسبة للولايات المتحدة، سيكون هدفها الاساسي تقليل النفوذ الايراني في العراق، ولتحقيق ذلك فان على واشنطن مواصلة دعم الحكومة العراقية في مواجهة الازمة الاقتصادية والطبية عبر الدعم المالي لان نجاح الحكومة الجديدة التي تعتبر خارج سيطرة ايران الكاملة، سيكون نجاحا للجهود العراقية لنيل السيادة والاستقلال في القرارات في حال سارت الأمور بالشكل المتوقع من رئيس وزراء لم تختره ايران.

كما ان على الولايات المتحدة ان تواصل دعم قوات الامن العراقية عبر السلاح، وبرامج التدريب، وعليها عدم اتخاذ قرار بسحب جميع جنودها من البلاد، بل سحب فقط الوحدات القتالية التي تثير غضب ايران، والابقاء على المدربين والمستشارين بمشاركة شركائها في حلف الناتو، وتوفير الغطاء الجوي والمعلومات الاستخباراتية لقوات الجيش وجهاز مكافحة الارهاب.

ان انسحاب القوات الاميركية من البلاد سيضطر باقي القوات الاجنبية وحلف الناتو الى الانسحاب تدريجيا، ما يشجع الفصائل المسلحة القريبة من ايران على تعزيز قوتها على الارض حتى داخل المدن الغربية، كما سيعرُض العملية السياسية الى الخطر، ويجعل الانتخابات المقبلة موضع شك.

04/06/2020
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