لماذا الحياد العراقي صعب بين واشنطن وطهران؟
المنصة – مصطفى حبيب
عندما تعلن فصائل واحزاب شيعية انها ستقف الى جانب ايران، فهي في الحقيقة تدافع عن نفسها ووجودها، ونفس الشئ ينطبق على الاحزاب والقوى السنية التي ترى ان الانزواء الاميركي من العراق خسارة لنفوذها ومصالحها السياسية.
“الحياد العراقي وفق الوضع القائم يعني ان تكون مع ايران على ان لا تثير غضب اميركا، انه حياد مشوه بلا شك، ولكنه الواقع”، بهذه العبارة يختصر سياسي عراقي رفيع موقع العراق من الازمة المشتعلة بين واشنطن وطهران.
خلال الساعات الماضية تصاعد التوتر اميركا وايران الى مستويات خطيرة، بعد اسقاط ايران طائرة استطلاع اميركية كلفتها 120 مليون دولار، كادت اميركا ترد بضربة عسكرية، لكن الرئيس دونالد ترامب اعلن الغائها في اللحظة الاخيرة، وقبل الحادثة دخل الطرفين في دبلوماسية قاسية عبر استهداف معسكرات تضم جنود اميركيين في مقابل تشديد العقوبات على طهران.
في المحصلة يشير التوتر الاخير بان العراق سيكون ساحة رئيسية لأي صراع عسكري بين الطرفين، ويبدو ان العراقيين غير قادرين على اقناع الجبهتين المتصارعتين كفاية بمنطلقات اعلنتها الحكومة مرارا بانها لن تكون مع طرف ضد اخر، ولن يسمح بأستخدام اراضيه لشن هجوم على اي طرف، ويبدو ان الديناميكية السياسية العراقية في الواقع ما زالت غير مؤهلة لتحقيق هذا الهدف لأسباب عدة تعود في معظمها الى ضبابية القرار السياسي في العراق.
منذ تشكيل في تشرين الاول (اكتوبر) 2018 تبنّت الحكومة العراقية الجديدة سياسة خارجية جديدة تقوم على الحياد ازاء الازمات، وسعى رئيس الجمهورية برهم صالح الى تثبيتها اقليميا ودوليا عبر زيارات مكوكية لجميع دول الجوار ذات المحاور المتعارضة، وتكرّست اكثر بتوقيع رئيس الوزراء عادل عبد المهدي اتفاقات اقتصادية لافتة مع السعودية وايران والاردن ومصر.
وبالعودة الى تعليق السياسي: “الحياد وفق الوضع العراقي الراهن يعني ان يكون مع ايران، على ان لا تثير غضب اميركا، انه حياد مشوه بلا شك، لكنه الواقع”، فان ذلك نابع من الفشل في بناء مؤسسة حكم قادرة على فهم التحول الذي شهدته البلاد بعد العام 2003، انتقلت البلاد الى النظام البرلماني الذي يمنح الكتل السياسية امكانية في التحكم بقرارات الدولة وحتى مخالفتها متى ما رأت مصالحها تقتضي ذلك.
والمشكلة الاكبر ان كل طرف من طرفي الصراع يريد سحب العراق الى جانبه ومعاداة الاخر، من دون فهم الوقائع بعد العام 2003، لم تدرك اميركا حقيقة ان العراق لا بد ان يكون له علاقات طبيعية مع ايران بحكم الجغرافية والروابط الاجتماعية والدينية، في المقابل سعت ايران الى تحويل العراق عدوا لاميركا، متجاهلة حقيقة ان العراق يحتاج الى امريكا والدول الكبرى لتجاوز المرحلة التاسيسية ولاحقا البناء والتنمية والاقتصادية.
وفق هذه المعادلة يعاني العراق من اشكالية كبيرة، وتبدو محاولاته في مسك العصا من الوسط غير مرضية لكل من طهران وواشنطن، وهذه الاشكالية تتحمل الجزء الاكبر من الازمات الداخلية التي يعاني منها العراق وخصوصا شيوع الفساد وانعدام الخدمات وسوء الادارة وغياب خطط تنموية لبلد انهكته الصراعات على مدى العقود الاربعة الماضية.
وسط الازمة المشتعلة بين اميركا وايران يحاول السياسيون العراقيون بكل جهدهم منع وصولها الى الصدام العسكري من جانب، والاستعداد لسيناريو اندلاع الصدام عبر النأي عن النفس والتزام الحياد من جانب اخر وهو الموقف الاكثر تعقيدا في ديناميكية المشهد السياسي، فالقوى والاحزاب والفصائل المسلحة منقسمة بدورها، بعضها اعلنت وقوفها صراحة مع ايران ضد الولايات المتحدة، واخرى تنتظر الهجوم الاميركي على البلد الجار باعتبارها فرصة طال بانتظارها للخلاص من النفوذ الايراني.
وكلا الموقفان خطيران ولا ياخذ في الحسبان تداعيات المواجهة العسكرية على العراق، ولكن الموقفان ما يبررهما، فالعملية السياسية بعد العام 2003 فشلت في ايجاد هوية سياسية وطنية، كما فشلت في تعزيز دور المواطنة وانتجت حرب مذهبية قبل عشر سنوات.
وغياب الهوية السياسية المستندة على العوامل الوطنية الداخلية اجبرت الاحزاب القابضة على السلطة على البحث عن بدائل لحماية وجودها وهو الدعم الخارجي، وهذا ما يبرر اتفاق اغلب الاحزاب على عدم تشريع قانون انتخابي عادل يضمن التمثيل الحقيقي للناخبين العراقيين.
عندما تعلن فصائل مسلحة واحزاب وقوى شيعية انها ستقف الى جانب ايران بل والدفاع عنها، فهي في الحقيقة تدافع عن نفسها ووجودها لا عن ايران، اذ لا ضمانات لهذه القوى ببقائها واستمرارها اذا ما انحسر النفوذ الايراني، وترى انها قد تتعرض للتهميش او الانتقام في حال غياب الدعم الايراني.
ونفس الشئ ينطبق على الاحزاب والقوى السياسية السنية التي ترى ان الانزواء الاميركي من العراق سيجعلها تخسر نفوذها ومصالحها السياسية، ولهذا ترفض مثلا فكرة انسحاب القوات الاميركية من البلاد خشية ابتلاعها من الطرف الاخر.
ولو كانت هناك هوية سياسية عراقية تمتلك الاستقلال الوطني وتحتفظ بمساحة واضحة لكل الاطراف الاقليمية والدولية وقادرة على تمييز الدعم والتعاون من النفوذ والهيمنة، لما وجدنا الاحزاب العراقية منقسمة بين فريقين في ظرف حساس وخطير تمر به المنطقة الان.
ويتحمل كلا من الولايات المتحدة وايران جزءا كبيرا من غياب الهوية السياسية العراقية الوطنية، كل طرف سعى وما زال الى ان يكون حليفا كاملا له وعدوا للاخر، وهي فكرة اثبتت السنوات الماضية انها صعبة التحقق وانتجت عراقا ضعيفا انعكس ضعفه على مجمل الوضع في الشرق الاوسط.
كما ان الاحزاب العراقية لم تؤسس لعقد اجتماعي مع الناخبين، وبقيت هذه الاحزاب وخصوصا القادمة من الخارج تشعر بانها غريبة عن المواطنين، ولم تضع استراتيجية للالتحام بالواقع الداخلي، ووجدت في النفوذ السياسي القائم على قانون انتخابي يسمح لاستمرارها رغم ادراكهم انه لا يمثل واقع الناخبين، الخيار الوحيد للاستمرار.
ايجاد مخرج لهذه المشكلة عبر التأسيس السياسي المؤسساتي يتطلب وقتا بينما طبول الحرب تقرع على ابواب العراق، والمطلوب الان التزام اقسى درجات ضبط النفس من الفصائل والاحزاب في ابداء مواقف تصعيدية، ودعم جهود الحكومة التي وضعت لبنات جدية في سياسة خارجية عراقية تتناغم واوضاع المنطقة المتأزمة، عبر النأي عن النفس والتزام الحياد والمساهمة في اي جهود دبلوماسية لنزع فتيل الازمات.
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