العراق 2020… كل شيء يسير نحو الانهيار!

21/12/2020
1٬353 4 دقائق

 

المنصة – مصطفى حبيب

 

يتفق معظم العراقيين على ان 2020 كان احد أسوأ الأعوام التي عصفت ببلادهم، سياسيا وامنيا واقتصاديا، ولكن هذه المرة يبدو ان الوضع خطير، ويهدد بانهيار البلاد بعد صراعات دموية لم تتوقف منذ عام 2003.

 

استقبل العراقيون عام 2020 بأحداث مؤلمة، عشرات الشباب المحتجين في بغداد وجنوب البلاد يتساقطون برصاص قوات الامن، فيما تدير البلاد حكومة تصريف اعمال بعد استقالة رئيس الوزراء عادل عبد المهدي تحت ضغط المحتجين.

 

وفي اول أيام السنة في 3 كانون الثاني (يناير) اغتالت الولايات المتحدة قائد فيلق القدس الإيراني قاسم سليماني، ونائب رئيس هيئة “الحشد الشعبي” أبو مهدي المهندس، في خطوة جريئة ما زال العراق يدفع ثمنها بسبب تصاعد التوتر بين الغريمين واشنطن وطهران.

 

فقط بعد يومين من الحادثة، صوت البرلمان العراقي على قرار انسحاب القوات الأميركية من البلاد بغياب النواب السنة والاكراد، وبعدها بأيام ردت طهران على اغتيال سليماني بقصف قاعدة عين الأسد في الانبار حيث تقع اكبر قواعد الجيش الأميركي في البلاد، ردت القوات الأميركية باستهداف مقرات لفصائل شيعية، ليزداد الوضع سوءا.

 

في 24 شباط اقتحم وباء كورونا البلاد الهشة التي تعاني من غياب البنى التحتية والمؤسسات الصحية، سجّل العراق اول حالة إصابة لطالب إيراني يدرس الدين في مدارس النجف، ومن سوء حظ العراق ان جاره ايران في طليعة الدول في عدد الإصابات والوفيات عالميا، لم يتدارك العراق الوضع لأغلاق الحدود.

 

يحل العراق اليوم في المرتبة 24 عالميا في نسب الإصابات بالوباء، كما يحتل المرتبة    عربيا باكثر من نصف مليون إصابة، فضلا عن وفاة اكثر من 12 الف مصاب، الخبر الأكثر حزنا في قصة الوباء انه سرق من العراقيين اسطورة كرة القدم الكابتن احمد راضي في مشاهد مؤلمة وهو يصارع الموت في مستشفيات العاصمة الرديئة.

 

في اذار (مارس) شنت القوات الأميركية ضربات استهدفت مقرات فصائل شيعية موالية لايران، ردا على استهداف ايران وتلك الفصائل السفارة الأميركية في المنطقة الخضراء، لاحقا استدعت الخارجية العراقية سفراء واشنطن ولندن لإبلاغهما استنكار العراق لعمليات القصف.

 

حتى في أيام الاغلاق الشامل الذي خضع له العراق اسوة بباقي دول العالم بين نيسان (ابريل) وايار (مايو) لم يكن هادئا ومسالما، استغل تنظيم داعش الذي ما زال يهدد البلد، تراخي قوات الامن وشن سلسلة هجمات استهدفت بلدات صلاح الدين وكركوك وديالى والانبار.

 

أيام الاغلاق جلبت معها المزيد من المشكلات في بلد عشائري وقبلي مثل العراق، ومع تراجع الأوضاع الاقتصادية بسبب الاغلاق وتعرض مئات الالاف من العراقيين الذين يعتاشون على مشاريعهم الصغيرة الى الكساد، ازدادت حالات العنف الاسري بشكل مخيف، اخبار يومية تتوالى عن حالات طلاق وانتحار وقتل.

 

 

نيسان (ابريل) كان حافلا بالحدث الأهم في هذا العام، رئيس الجمهورية برهم صالح الذي اتخذ دعم جانب المحتجين، رفض تكليف رئيس وزراء جديد من الأحزاب الشيعية القريبة من ايران، رغم ان ذلك خارج صلاحياته، لكنه قال ان الوضع خطير ولا يحتمل المزيد من التأزم في تكليف شخصية من الطبقة السياسية التي سبق ورفضها المحتجين.

 

تجاوز صالح التوافق السياسي وقرر تكليف عدنان الزرفي لرئاسة الحكومة، اشتد غضب الأحزاب الشيعية القريبة من ايران ليس لأنه تجاهلهم فحسب، بل لأنه التقى بالرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب ايضا في قمة دافوس، بعد أيام من تحذير الفصائل الشيعية له بعدم اللقاء معه لقتله قاسم سليماني وأبو مهدي المهندس.

 

لم يتمكن المرشح الزرفي من تشكيل حكومته ليرشح صالح بدلا عنه مصطفى الكاظمي، الشخصية الخفية التي جاءت من خلف الكواليس الى اهم منصب في البلاد، وتمكن من تشكيل حكومته في أيار (مايو) وسط تفاؤل شعبي واسع في تجاوز محنة البلاد.

 

اظهر الكاظمي نزعة وطنية في بداية استلامه المنصب وبدا رافضا للنفوذ الإيراني، واقدم في حزيران (يونيو) على اصدار امر باعتقال خلية لفصيل “كتائب حزب الله” اقوى الفصائل الشيعية الموالية لإيران والمتهمة بقصف المنطقة الخضراء والسفارة الاميركية، لكن القصة لم تنتهي هكذا، إذ اقتحمت مجاميع الفصائل الشيعية المنطقة الخضراء حيث مقر الحكومة مهددين بأسقاط الحكومة اذا لم يطلق سراح زملائهم.

 

وفعلا تم اطلاق سراح المعتقلين، وخرجوا وسط شوارع بغداد وهو يدوسون على صورة الكاظمي بأقدامهم، صُدم العراقيين بالمشهد لكنهم تيقنوا ان البلاد تحكمها سلطة اقوى من الدولة واكثر تأثيرا.

 

توالت اشهر السنة حاملة بين ايامها المزيد من الكوارث، وفي مطلع تموز (يوليو) صُدم العراقيون باغتيال الخبير والمحلل الأمني المعروف هشام الهاشمي، وانتشر تسجيل فيديو يوثق لحظة اغتياله بالتفصيل تداوله العراقيون بالخوف والقلق، لم تمض أيام على الحادث حتى تم اختطاف الناشطة الألمانية هيلا ميفيس التي تعمل في العراق منذ سنوات ثم اُطلق سراحها لاحقا، فيما تواصلت عمليات خطف وقتل المتظاهرين والناشطين على نحو مخيف.

 

 

في اب (أغسطس) أصدرت 16 دولة وبعثة الاتحاد الاوربي عبر سفرائها في العراق بيانا صارما يدين اعمال العنف والاغتيالات، شملت تهديدات بقطع الدعم عن العراق في حال استمرت هذه الحوادث.

 

ووسط أوضاع متوترة ومقلقة يعيشها العراق امنيا، قرر الرئيس الفرنسي ايمانويل ماكرون زيارة بغداد في 2 أيلول (سبتمبر) ليكون الرئيس الوحيد الذي زار البلاد هذا العام ، وحمل ماكرون رسالة مفادها ان سيادة العراق يجب ان تتحقق، في إشارة الى النفوذ الإيراني العميق داخل العراق.

 

لكن الأمور تزداد سوءا اكثر فأكثر، ففي هذا الشهر تزايدت حوادث استهداف المنطقة الخضراء ومقر السفارات الأجنبية ومطار بغداد، لتصدر 25 دولة اجنبية وعربية بيانا مشتركا عبرت فيها عن قلقها إزاء ذلك، مع تهديد بالانسحاب ومغادرة البلاد.

 

في تشرين الأول (أكتوبر) لعبت المبعوثة الأممية في العراق جينين بلاسخارت دور الوساطة وعقدت مفاوضات معقدة مع الفصائل الشيعية الموالية لإيران، جلست مع أبو فدك الشخص الذي يرأس هذه الفصائل، وتوصل الجانبان الى اتفاق هدنة لشهرين لوقف الهجمات على السفارات، تنتهي مع انتهاء الانتخابات الأميركية.

 

وفي هذ الشهر أيضا، شهدت بلدة الفرحاتية في صلاح الدين، حادثة قتل طائفية، أقدمت قوة مجهولة على خطف مواطنين من السنّة واعدمتهم ورمت بجثثهم في الشوارع، رغم محاولة بعض الجهات لصق التهمة بتنظيم داعش، لكن الحقائق تشير الى غير ذلك.

 

دخل تشرين الثاني (نوفمبر) الى العراق مع ازمة اقتصادية كبيرة، للمرة الأولى منذ سنوات إذ تأخرت مرتبات نحو ثمانية ملايين عراقي من موظفين ومتقاعدين، اثر تراجع موارد الدولة المالية بسبب انخفاض أسعار النفط العالمية.

 

تصاعدت الازمة الاقتصادية في البلاد في اخر شهور السنة، والدينار العراقي تراجع امام الدولار بنسبة 23% في محاولة من الحكومة لتدارك الازمة الاقتصادية، وبذلك خسر الموظفين والمتقاعدين 23% من رواتبهم رغم انهم سيحصلون على نفس الرواتب.

 

وفي هذا الشهر، اطلق سكان إقليم كردستان احتجاجات شعبية بسبب الازمة الاقتصادية التي ضربت الإقليم بشكل اكبر من بغداد، قُتل وأصيب العشرات، بينما تحاول حكومة الإقليم اقناع الحكومة الاتحادية بتسوية مالية في مهمة تبدو معقدة وصعبة.

 

وفي أواخر أيام سنة 2020، يتصاعد قلق العراقيين اكثر، تهدد ايران بالانتقام لمقتل قاسم سليماني في الذكرى السنوية الأولى لاغتياله، أي مطلع العام الجديد.

 

عاش العراقيون عاما قاسيا في 2020، ولا تبدو التوقعات متفائلة بالعام الجديد سياسيا واقتصاديا، إذ تتجه البلاد نحو المزيد من الازمات السياسية والأمنية والاقتصادية، ولا يستعد مراقبون سيناريو الانهيار.

 

 

 

 

21/12/2020
1٬353 4 دقائق

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